Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Pain In Last Drop Of Urine

STOCK INDEX TO X-RAY


Add yet another notiziaccia on world stock markets.
continues to insist on good-and rightly-that invest in shares, bonds, derivatives in (madness!) Is "betting" on hot air!
I had 20 years of paying dues to the bank and 5 from financial advisor and I finally realized that it is all a " BET . If the securities
BOND , considered "safe" and "not risky" offer a rate slightly aligned to the inflation rate, although some were hiding something. Either the state or the offeree company has sufficient liquidity / credibility, or the title is somehow tied to a EXCHANGE RISK or R ISCHIO COUNTRY . Remember the much-acclaimed
banks Bond Argentina,? Remember the 21% coupon bonds of the City of Prague "? But surely there are more experienced players than me who can name a galore of catch.
The problem is, and remains, in the wrongness of financial instruments invented and exported without any antidote to our financial system as " DERIVATIVES . These, together with the massive campaign of banks and governments of indebtedness the population, to ensure that collapses the "system". Inflated budgets, onerous taxes, investment by large companies made with virtual money of banks, massive indebtedness of the population through personal loans, mortgages (subprime ) and debit cards revolving line of credit have also completed the "bets" made on everything.

What to do? Meanwhile
you "turn" the analysis made by slavishly Websim to make you penetrate your skin to "invest your money in the stock market has = to lose sooner or later!.
Today brick while it is undergoing a severe crisis due to the massive issuance of mortgages to purchase homes that have scrambled in the last 8 years and ballooned prices. But this does not happen in economies that have had the foresight not to grant credit and which are based primarily on actual values. The Mexico is among them. Brazil has an estimated increase even more, as there is a strong increase built in Asia and Africa! but mind you ... .. the higher the income the higher also the RISK!
So YES to invest in brick , BUT IN COUNTRIES WITH LOW RISK.

picalu@live.it

traumatic day for financial markets, with European stock exchanges that yield more than 3 percentage points. We make the point about the framework of the main indices:

1) Bags Europe. This morning, Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid have scored new lows of 2009. The indices are returned to the levels of 2003/2004. Similar situation London moves to a point from their lows in October 2008.

2) Milan Stock Exchange. Piazza Affari is made much worse than other European stock exchanges, including the massive presence in its index of financial stocks (banks and insurance) sector's worst year to date. -4% This morning with the NASDAQ is returned to the levels of May 1997. The following graph Eurostoxx 50 (top 50 European blue chips):


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3) Bags Eastern Europe. Most of the indices (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic) is back on the levels of 2003/2004, while Russia has gained 33% from the lows of October 2008. The problem in these markets is above another, the local currency. All local currencies crashed in the wake of the financial crisis. They range from -23% against the euro czech crown, to -50% of the Polish Szloty to -55% of the ruble. If you then add the exchange rate effect, the loss of value of the Stock Exchange is much heavier.

4) U.S. stocks. Dow Jones and S & P 500 touched new lows since 1997, the Friday and make good company the Milan Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq is still moving only slightly above the minimum in 2008, one reason probably lies in the scarcity of financial stocks. Below the S & P500:


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5) Bags Asia. The general scenario is for now better than in Europe and the USA. If we exclude Tokyo, all the indexes are well above the minimum in 2008. Stands the case of Chinese stock market from the lows of October 2008 has recovered 36% from 1 January 2009 and earns 20%. In Tokyo the Nikkei clings to a handful of points (four to be exact) to the media in mid-October. The problem is that their failure would set the bag on the levels of Japan early 80s. Here is the Chinese stock market:

3_1.jpg

6) Bags South America. The lion's share is doing in Brazil, about 30 percentage points above the minimum 2008. Here, even the local currency, the real, on our side in the sense that it was revalued by about 8 points against the euro since the beginning of year and therefore add to the positive performance year to date. The graph below is on the Bovespa in Brazil:

4_1.jpg

In summary, if we take stock, we can say that the storm is hitting the last few months in particular lists of Europe and the United States and this is grounded in the big scary credit crisis. At the other extreme are the stock markets of China and Brazil where it appears (the conditional is a must) and a minimum of optimism after the tsunami generated by the crack of Lehman Brothers is slowly returning.

www.websim.it

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