The financial system creaks and Eastern Europe international banks in the area are facing a situation increasingly critical. The fall in oil prices also shakes Russia, last week Prime Minister Vladimir Putin put his signature to a second package of assistance to the banking system from 1,000 billion rubles (46.7 billion euro), but the money coming in do not seem to be able to ease tensions.
Tonight, the number one association of regional banks of Russia, Anatoly Aksakov, told reporters that the banks will ask the government to support negotiations in Moscow Intavolata to have a moratorium on loans to European banks. At stake are € 135 billion of debt maturing in 2009 and € 400 million within 5 years.
The statement shook financial markets this morning and forced the finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, to disprove.
The events of the morning are the latest signals a worsening of the area and have a new warning to Unicredit. For the bank headed by Alessandro Profumo is the one on Russia, 69% of total loans at the end of the group in September 2008. The deposits come to 7.3 billion euro, 1, 1% of the total value of the group.
An analyst who preferred anonymity is expected to raise UniCredit's prudent provisions related to the area from Eastern Europe bringing to 2.00 / 2.50 percent of total loans. In Italy, the risk management shall establish a provision of around 0.8 to 1.0 per cent to total loans.
Across the area the scenario is becoming increasingly murky. The flight of foreign capital, the same people who fueled the robust growth in the last decade, has grounded the ruble (-35% against the euro over the past four months). The descent of the currency is stifling families in recent years have debt in euro to take advantage of the favorable differential between the rates of interest. As a result, banks are facing the danger of a dramatic increase in customers will not be able to pay the mortgage payments denominated in euro.
They are the best companies in the past decade have linked hands and feet to Germany and now in heavily affected by the recession the first European economy.
Unicredito can not afford to sit back and watch what happens in Central and Eastern Europe. The posts of the group in the area at the end of September amounted to 88.4 billion euro in Poland is the largest share (21.7 billion euro), Russia is in second place with € 10.6 billion and below us are Croatia (8.1 billion), the Czech Republic (6.7 billion) and Ukraine (4.5 billion). Are also included in the Asian countries of the former Soviet Union, those who are suffering the hardest blows of the crisis and the falling price of oil.
Kazakhstan (4.25 billion euro of loans) is one of them, Unicredit entered the country in June 2007 noting ATF Bank, the fourth local bank at which time the outlook was rosy and spend € 1.7 billion, about 30 times earnings, seemed a deliberate choice. A year and a half later the situation has reversed, last week the government in Astana, the currency has devalued by 18% and had previously nationalized two of the first banks in the country.
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